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· Unmanned driving to ease traffic congestion is controversial
At present, intelligent networked vehicles with unmanned driving as the ultimate goal are hot, and it is widely believed in the industry that unmanned driving can not only liberate human hands, but also fundamentally change the way of travel in the future, and solve the increasingly serious traffic congestion and other troubled human travel. The problem. However, not long ago, a test by the Scott Le Vine research team at Imperial College London showed that the introduction of 25% of self-driving cars would cause traffic conditions to deteriorate. If pedestrians were introduced for a mixed test, the results might be worse. So, in urban traffic, what kind of magnitude of driverless cars can really ease congestion? How to dialectically think about its significance for improving transportation?
♦ Import 25% unmanned aggravation
Traffic congestion is determined by the number of roads and vehicles, that is, the amount of traffic. "Everyone said that autonomous driving can solve traffic congestion. In fact, it is not. In the long run, it will only play a role in mitigating. In the short term, it will not only ease, but will increase congestion." In a forum held previously, Wei Lai Automobile Li Bin, founder and chairman of the board, said that the role of driverlessness is only to liberate the driving time of the owner in the car. "In the past, traffic jams, the owner can only hold the steering wheel to wait for the relief of the congestion. If the driver is unmanned, the owner's time in the car will be completely liberated, both for entertainment and rest."
The Imperial College London research team conducted the test on the roads of four cities, introducing 25% of self-driving cars into the cars on the road, then simulating 16 different road conditions for one hour, then according to traffic conditions. The average of the delay and traffic capacity is calculated. The result is that the introduction of 25% of self-driving cars can lead to deterioration of traffic conditions. The tester said that if a pedestrian is introduced into the test for a mixed test, the result may be worse. It should be pointed out that if the self-driving car incorporates the acceleration and deceleration logic similar to the British High Speed ​​Railway (HSR), the passenger's ride will feel very pleasant and enjoyable, but it will lead to serious traffic deterioration.
A study by mathematician Benjamin Seibold and his research team presented completely different results. Their experiments on the effects of autonomous vehicles on reducing traffic pressures (such as ghost blockage) have shown that the distance between cars reserved for autonomous vehicles is greater, and acceleration and deceleration are determined by a series of calculations. When the car is relatively dense, the self-driving car will keep a certain distance and reduce the number of sudden braking, thus reducing the impact on the rear vehicle. As long as 2% of self-driving cars, you can reduce the stop-and-go situation by 50%. In other words, even if there are few self-driving cars in the traffic, you can adjust your own speed to avoid the entire traffic jam.
♦ Solving misstatement and underreporting is the key
“It is not entirely correct to say that driverlessness cannot alleviate traffic congestion.†Wu Zhixin, deputy general manager of China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd. believes that, in principle, driverlessness is not directly related to traffic congestion. The same number of vehicles The number of occupied transportation resources is driving on the road, the absolute amount of traffic has not changed, and the impact on the transportation system will naturally not decrease. "But the transportation system needs maintenance. In the case of manned driving, the destruction of rules is often the main reason for today's congestion." Wu Zhixin said that Honda has already had some intelligent vehicles in Japan to realize the networking with the transportation system. “The vehicle can receive the traffic conditions at the next intersection at the previous intersection, so the driver is prompted to advance at the speed of the next road section to quickly pass the next intersection to avoid the driver's red light operation. Appeared." In Wu Zhixin's view, the increase of such intelligent network-connected vehicles can alleviate traffic congestion to a certain extent, but only requires a certain amount of accumulation to reflect the advantages. The advantage of self-driving cars is that they can sense changes in the road ahead, which is important for mitigating congestion.
OSCO (World Automobile Organization) Secretary General Yves van der Straaten also said in an interview with China Auto News that 90% of traffic congestion is caused by human error, improper operation and other factors, and these problems can be avoided by automatic driving. . “Automatic driving through strict program settings allows the vehicle to strictly abide by the traffic rules.†According to Yves van der Straaten, the Imperial College London study is based solely on the assumption of partial driverlessness and does not truly reflect the true realization of driverless driving. After the situation.
Yan Jianlai, deputy secretary-general of the China Automotive Engineering Society, said that if drones want to alleviate traffic congestion, they must be supported by 5G technology. "At present, 60% of the congestion incentives are accidents, and driverless technology can avoid accidents. At the same time, with the support of network technology, the vehicle failure after high-speed network will also be greatly reduced." Yan Jian said.
Zhang Weibin, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley, said that the current smart car does not have the ability to solve traffic congestion, but once it has the network properties, it can be achieved. "Current smart cars usually have two situations: misreporting and underreporting. Misstatement is to misreport a safe situation as a danger. Missing a report means that a dangerous situation is considered safe by the system, thus missing the source of danger. Current procedural principles It is better to misreport or not to report, which is easy to produce some wrong instructions. To solve the problem of traffic congestion, it is necessary to let the smart car network, comprehensively consider and solve the misreporting and underreporting in the entire transportation system. The problem can really ease the congestion."
Realistic traffic conditions show that traffic lights are another important cause of traffic congestion. Vehicles waiting for the red light to queue have a process of acceleration. Because there is no acceleration at the same time, there is a gap between the car and the car, which actually reduces the efficiency of all cars passing the traffic lights. Unmanned vehicles are significantly more efficient when passing traffic lights. Humans don't have the speed of AI, and it's hard to keep driving at a constant speed, while machine-controlled driverless can do it. The German government's autopilot vehicle test for highways also showed that the test results for autonomous driving were good because there were no signal lights.
♦ Alleviation of congestion requires coordination among all parties
"Unmanned driving with network properties can comprehensively judge various traffic conditions, and even use big data and cloud computing to help solve solutions, thus making an important contribution to alleviating traffic congestion." Zhang Weibin said. Wu Zhixin also said that when unmanned driving becomes the protagonist of traffic travel, its compliance with traffic rules and early warning and judgment of overall traffic conditions are much higher than current human driving, especially after its inclusion in the intelligent transportation system, traffic congestion. It is very likely to be alleviated and even reduced.
Li Bin’s judgment is based on the fact that the total amount of vehicles has not decreased. Therefore, the argument that traffic congestion is inevitable is somewhat one-sided. From the current point of view, driverless has indeed failed to reduce the total amount of vehicles. However, in the long-term development, in the era of unmanned driving, human beings become users of vehicles, not necessarily owners of vehicles. Sharing will undoubtedly greatly reduce the absolute possession of vehicles. When drones are really realized in large numbers, the reduction in the absolute amount of vehicles will also occur one after another.
"No driver has been implemented yet. All our judgments and tests are hypothetical and unreal. From the development of driverless technology, there is no doubt that there is a lot of room for development, and it is worth looking forward to." Yves van der Straaten said . Researchers at the Scott Le Vine research team at Imperial College London also said that in their tests, if all the vehicles were self-driving cars, the traffic conditions would change and the traffic would become smooth.
It is worth noting that the premise of autonomous vehicles to ease traffic congestion needs to include the coordination of urban planning, public quality, and public transportation system. Yan Jianlai emphasized that high-speed automatic driving and unmanned driving can only achieve the purpose of alleviating traffic congestion only by the cooperation of intelligent transportation system and social system. At present, various systems such as urban transportation are also built on the basis of existing human driving, and there is a big difference with the real unmanned transportation system. All judgments seem to be premature.